Work overview

Section 05 of 05

Conclusions

Community-based health and social care demand associated with frailty in people aged 50 and over in England 2025–40: routine data analyses and simulation modelling

Bronagh Walsh, Carole Fogg, Tracey England, Sally Brailsford, Martin J Vernon, Peter Griffiths, Lee-Ann Fenge, Gulam Muktadir, Evgeny Galimov, Abigail Barkham, and Lyndsey Williams · 2026

Contents

Section 05 of 05

  1. 01Key Points
  2. 02Background
  3. 03Results
  4. 04Discussion
  5. 05Conclusions
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Work overview

Section 5 of 5

Conclusions

Bronagh Walsh, Carole Fogg, Tracey England, Sally Brailsford, Martin J Vernon, Peter Griffiths, Lee-Ann Fenge, Gulam Muktadir, Evgeny Galimov, Abigail Barkham, and Lyndsey Williams · about 1 minutes

Using routine service use data, a simulation model was developed to estimate future demand for community-based services in the ageing population in England. The model forecast increased demand associated with population ageing and increasing frailty. Simulation scenarios of achievable reductions in incidence and progression resulted in modest reductions in demand for these services compared with baseline, but due to large numbers with mild and moderate frailty, demand will continue to increase.