Introduction

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent chronic degenerative joint disease mainly involving weight-bearing joints including knees, hips, spine and hands [1]. Persistent joint pain, stiffness and progressive articular deformity impair daily mobility and may eventually lead to permanent disability, with reported disability rate up to 53% [2]. Chronic physical discomfort also raises risks of depression and anxiety and impairs patients’ quality of life. Global OA prevalence keeps climbing amid population aging and brings mounting socioeconomic burdens worldwide [3].

OA-related irreversible articular damage determines the necessity of early intervention; however, limited early diagnostic criteria, insufficient public cognition and imperfect prevention policies hinder standardized disease control [4]. Previous Chinese OA burden analyses were mostly based on outdated GBD datasets before 2017. To update epidemiological evidence, the present study used GBD 2021 data to quantify China's OA burden from 1990 to 2021 stratified by age, gender and pathological subtype, alongside long-term burden prediction for 2022–2044. Findings will facilitate targeted health promotion, reduce OA-related disability and ease corresponding social economic costs.